30-year Scenarios Of Air Travel Gloom
According to a series of scenarios presenting a vision in a report authored the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE), the air transport network in the UK could stagnate and air travel could be mainly reduced to long-haul connections.
But one scenario elaborated by ICE scenario also predicted that a “laissez-faire” behaviour could open the door to a boom in the airline industry by 2040 with international emission goals not being reached.
Peter Hansford, the vice president of ICE, highlighted that the scenarios were not predictions for 30 years in the future but rather underlined the necessity for Government, politicians and industry to evolve with a new philosophy in order to take account of the factors that may dramatically change airport infrastructure and air transport in the years to come.
The four ICE 2040 scenarios for the UK air transport industry and airport infrastructure were:
VORTEX OF DESPAIR: Airports will become political footballs opening the door to stagnation. People’s disposable income decreases and the cost of air travel jumps. Unemployment is high, immigration is a concern due to hit popularity and disposable income slides. The targets of emission reduction become more rigid. UK sees the closure of some regional airports and others are sold;
ECO ANGST: Air travel is affected by climate change. Those who must use air travel for trips do so quietly fearing vilification. Environmental activists and civil society groups accuse air travel industry despite the gains in technology. People choose rail travel for short journeys over flights. Several regional airports are closed and international airports become nationalised;
BIG STICK: The Government promotes a change in modes of transportation to a reluctant public, mainly politically driven because of concerns for climate change. Short-haul air travel has been abandoned in favour of rail journeys within an integrated national transport strategy. Road pricing is initiated and train fares become subsidised. The cost of air travel is generally high, but those rich enough to afford it continue to use it;
LAISSEZ-FAIRE: The global economy has witness a rapid growth and credit is plentiful and inexpensive. Taxation policies advantage the air travel industry. Airports are developed and they become more surface accessible. Despite the technological developments, global emissions targets are not reached. The results of dramatic and sudden climate change start to take hold and a priority is set for adptation; the UK’s busiest airports must build anti-flood structures.
Simon Godfrey-Arnold, an ICE aviation official said that it is uncertain to plan for the future demand for air travel, but the presentation of the four scenarios will hopefully contribute to the evolution of the discussion beyond some of the immediate subjects concerning individual projects and foster a larger consideration of the UK aviation’s future.
